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Palladium, like many other precious metals, has been enjoying excellent growth in value since the financial crisis as savvy professional investors moved out of stocks and bonds, which were taking a swan dive, and into assets such as gold, silver, platinum and of course, palladium. These metals are typically used as a hedge against a weak dollar and inflation, especially in times of adverse economic activity.

As the recession has taken hold, the value of palladium has leapt with double-digit growth but the summer months (of 2009) have demonstrated a wavering in the price of many metals, and palladium is no exception.

Platinum is bouncing underneath the $1,200 per ounce mark, gold is volatile, silver is hanging and palladium is stuck around $290 per ounce.

More disconcerting for metal speculators is that trading volumes are thin – the market is still and doesn’t seem to know which way to move.

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This directly led to the huge drop in platinum prices seen in the opening days of 2009 – such a capital injection from the US taxpayer was almost unprecedented and more than this, taxpayers around the world in developed countries were finding similarly large amounts of taxpayer cash was being pumped into the global financial system to keep the global economy afloat. He initial reaction of metal speculators, particularly those looking at platinum and precious metals as a safe haven in the very harsh economy, suddenly saw some light at the end of the tunnel – demand for platinum dropped and dropped like the proverbial rock.

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August 2009 has seen an improvement in the housing sector and September is seeing on target or better than expected performance numbers being reported by banks and retailers. Positive signs demonstrating some recovery or at least stabilization, but at the same time the dollar has continued to weaken against foreign currencies signifying a relatively poor performance against overseas markets and especially by those holding America’s debt (China especially).

The fundamental question is whether stock and bond market performance is going to convince investors to return – if they do, those holding precious metals are going to liquidate to get back into those markets in anticipation of enjoying the returns recovery will bring. The metal price will drop like a rock (just look at platinum prices falling from $2,200 to the $1,200 mark in the last quarter of 2008) and those holding palladium, gold, silver or platinum are going to feel very bad indeed that they didn’t take the opportunity to sell when the price was this high.

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